Sri Lanka holds rates steady, sees rosy inflation, growth outlook

COLOMBO: Sri Lanka’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged on Friday (Sep 27) in line with expectations, citing domestic and global uncertainties, but said inflation was likely to remain low and the economy was doing much better than initially expected.
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) kept the Standing Deposit Facility Rate at 8.25 per cent and the Standing Lending Facility Rate at 9.25 per cent. The decision comes in the wake of the election of a new president to steer the island out of its worst financial crisis in decades.
“We now see strong evidence that the economy will be growing well over 3 per cent but it is too early for us to project a specific number,” Governor P Nandalal Weerasinghe said, adding that CBSL will not announce any revision to its 3 per cent GDP forecast for 2024.
However, the government may provide an updated growth view when the budget is presented by the new finance minister, he added.
“The Board observed that inflation is likely to remain well below the target of 5 per cent over the next few quarters, potentially recording deflation in the immediate future driven by changes to administratively determined prices and easing of supply conditions,” CBSL said in its statement earlier.
Weerasinghe said inflation could breach the lower end of the inflation target band of 3 per cent – 7 per cent for two straight quarters as of end-September, requiring the CBSL to explain the reasons to the government as per law.
CBSL cut rates by 25 basis points in July as part of an easing cycle that has seen rates drop by a total 7.25 percentage points since June 2023, partially reversing the 10.50 percentage points of increases following the financial crisis.
“Growth and credit growth are currently at decent levels. Given premiums have gone up on government securities due to political uncertainty, CBSL would want to see that reduction first,” said Udeeshan Jonas strategy head at Colombo-based equity research firm CAL.
Jonas said inflation in the second half of the year could pick up while fiscal easing expected to be announced by the president in the upcoming budget could also impact prices.
Last Saturday, Sri Lanka elected Marxist-leaning Anura Kumara Dissanayake as president, drawn by his pledges to slash taxes, fight corruption, and reduce the cost of living.
Weerasinghe said he has discussed fiscal priorities with the new president but no detailed talks have taken place yet.
Dissanayake dissolved parliament on Tuesday and is hoping to strengthen his hand in the 225-member house with a general election on Nov 14. His coalition held just three seats in the parliament elected in August 2020.
On Wednesday he said he plans to begin negotiations immediately with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to take forward the country’s US$2.9 billion bailout programme.
“We are discussing the next steps for engagement” IMF Senior Mission Chief for Sri Lanka Peter Breuer said in an email late on Thursday, reiterating the fund was looking forward to working with the country’s new president.